Potent Winter Storm on hand Friday

The trends in the models today have shifted further south with the storm track of this system for Friday. The good news on this is that the threat of ice is reduced. I am still waiting to see what NWS/Detroit is going to suggest where the heaviest snow will fall. Right now they are way too far north...expecting the heaviest snow to fall in Flint/Saginaw area, while snow to freezing rain down here along the I-94 corridor. I am thinking the heaviest snow will fall across the area between Detroit and Toledo for Friday, and I expect NWS/Detroit to trend the same way in their subsequent forecasts.

The track of this rather fast system still has some debate even though it is about 30hrs away (or about 12am Friday) from the onset. If indeed the forecast track goes along a line between Indianapolis and Columbus, then the threat of seeing snowfall totals >10" across Southern Michigan will be high. If the track is closer to Toledo, then ice will be more of an issue for Southern Michigan while the heaviest snow will fall around the Pontiac/Flint area. If a further trend in the track continues southward towards Cincinnati, then Southern Michigan will be the only spot to receive any accumulating snow and be only on the order of 2-5".
Winter Storm Watches are posted right now, but NWS will not issue Winter Storm Warnings until either late tonight or early tomorrow when the system is within 24hrs of impact. Expect to see very difficult travel throughout the morning and early afternoon hours on Friday. Allow for plenty of extra time Friday if you do have to leave the house.

Next update on Thursday

-Jeff

Potential significant Winter Storm Thu/Fri

Not to take lightly the snowfall we will be getting this Tuesday evening, which will cause some travel issues.... a more serious storm system may be impacting lower Michigan late Thursday evening into the morning on Friday that will be in the form of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Those who plan on traveling (whether for work or vacation) during this time period need to exercise extreme caution, allow yourself extra time to get to your destination, or possibly re-plan your options.

Winter storm watches/warnings have not been issued yet, but if the storm track continues to hold constant they will be issued in the next 24hrs.

A vigorous shortwave looks to eject out of the Southwest during the day Thursday and quickly move towards the Ohio Valley by early Friday morning. The Gulf will be wide open to draw in a lot of moisture and precip totals are running close to an inch. With an arctic airmass already in place over the Great Lakes, over-running becomes the issue. This means snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Storm track is going to be critical for us specifically, so please keep tabs on this blog for more updates as the storm gets closer.
Right now, it looks like we are going to get a little bit of everything. If projected storm track stays in line, 2-5" of snow, then a dosing of sleet, and maybe 1/4" of freezing rain as the warm air tries to push northward.

Another update to follow on Wednesday

-Jeff