The trends in the models today have shifted further south with the storm track of this system for Friday. The good news on this is that the threat of ice is reduced. I am still waiting to see what NWS/Detroit is going to suggest where the heaviest snow will fall. Right now they are way too far north...expecting the heaviest snow to fall in Flint/Saginaw area, while snow to freezing rain down here along the I-94 corridor. I am thinking the heaviest snow will fall across the area between Detroit and Toledo for Friday, and I expect NWS/Detroit to trend the same way in their subsequent forecasts.
The track of this rather fast system still has some debate even though it is about 30hrs away (or about 12am Friday) from the onset. If indeed the forecast track goes along a line between Indianapolis and Columbus, then the threat of seeing snowfall totals >10" across Southern Michigan will be high. If the track is closer to Toledo, then ice will be more of an issue for Southern Michigan while the heaviest snow will fall around the Pontiac/Flint area. If a further trend in the track continues southward towards Cincinnati, then Southern Michigan will be the only spot to receive any accumulating snow and be only on the order of 2-5".
Winter Storm Watches are posted right now, but NWS will not issue Winter Storm Warnings until either late tonight or early tomorrow when the system is within 24hrs of impact. Expect to see very difficult travel throughout the morning and early afternoon hours on Friday. Allow for plenty of extra time Friday if you do have to leave the house.
Next update on Thursday
-Jeff
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Your blog is set to private, so if you remove those settings and send out the link, more people can read it :)
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